Vulnerable newborn phenotypes in Peru: a population-based study of 3,841,531 births at national and subnational levels from 2012 to 2021.

Background: We aimed to examine the national and subnational prevalence of vulnerable newborn phenotypes in Peru, 2012-2021. Methods: Newborn phenotypes were defined using gestational age (preterm [PT], term [T]), birthweight for gestational age using INTERGROWTH-21st standards (small for gestational age [SGA], appropriate for gestational age [AGA] or large for gestational age [LGA]), and birthweight (low birthweight [LBW], non-LBW) using the Peruvian National Birth Registry as six (by excluding birthweight) and ten newborn phenotypes (using all three outcomes). Small phenotypes (with at least one classification of PT, SGA, or LBW) were further considered. Using individual-level data, we stratified the phenotypes by maternal educational level, maternal age, healthcare insurance, altitude of residence, and geographic region (Coast, Andes, and Amazon). Findings: The prevalence of the five vulnerable newborn phenotypes for the study period was LGA+T (15.2%), AGA+PT (5.2%), SGA+T (4.6%), LGA+PT (0.8%), and SGA+PT (0.7%). The Coast had a higher prevalence of newborns with large phenotypes (19.4%) and the Highlands a higher prevalence of newborns with small phenotypes (12.5%). Mothers with poor socioeconomic status, extreme ages and living at high altitude had a higher prevalence of newborns with small phenotypes, and mothers who were wealthier, more educated, and older had a higher prevalence of infants with large phenotypes. Interpretation: Our findings cautiously suggest that socioeconomic and geographic disparities may play a crucial role in shaping vulnerable newborn phenotypes at national and subnational level in Peru. Further studies using longitudinal data are needed to corroborate our findings and to identify individual-level risk factors. Funding: Ter Meulen Grant from the KNAW Medical Sciences Fund of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAWWF/1085/TMB406, KNAWWF/1327/TMB202116), Fogarty Program (D43TW011502).

Compliance with eye and foot preventive care in people with self-reported diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean: Pooled, cross-sectional analysis of nine national surveys.

AIMS: To estimate the proportion of people with self-reported diabetes receiving eye and foot examinations in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of national health surveys in nine countries. Adults aged 25-64 years with self-reported diabetes. We quantified the proportion who reported having an eye examination in the last two years or a foot examination in the last year. We fitted multilevel Poisson regressions to assess socio-demographic (age and sex) and clinical (oral hypoglycemic medication and insulin treatment) variables associated with having had examinations. RESULTS: There were 7435 people with self-reported diabetes included in the analysis. In three countries (Chile [64%; 95% CI: 56%-71%], British Virgin Islands [58%; 95% CI: 51%-65%], and Brazil [54%; 95% CI: 50%-58%]), >50% of people with diabetes reported having had an eye examination in the last two years. Fewer participants (<50% across all countries) reported having had a foot examination in the last year, with Ecuador having the lowest proportion (12%; 95% CI: 8%-17%). Older people, and those taking oral medication or insulin, were more likely to have eye/foot examinations. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of eye and foot examinations in people with self-reported diabetes across nine countries in LAC is low.

Number of People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in 2035 and 2050: A Modelling Study in 188 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Future demographic changes will increase the number of people living with non-communicable diseases. We projected the number of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in 2035 and 2050 at the global and country levels. METHODS: We pooled T2DM prevalence estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and population estimates from the United Nations for 188 countries. We computed the absolute number of people with T2DM in 2020 and predicted the future number in 2035 and 2050 under four scenarios for the T2DM prevalence: 1) It held constant, 2) It increased by 50%, 3) It decreased by 10%, and 4) It followed 1990-2019 country-specific past trends. RESULTS: The global number of people with T2DM was 445 million in 2020, and it is projected to increase in 2050 to 730 million if prevalence remains unchanged, 1,095 million if prevalence increases by 50%, 657 million if prevalence decreases by 10%, and 1,153 million if prevalence follows country-specific 1990-2019 past trends. Under all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa and lowincome countries had the highest relative increase in the number of people with T2DM. The share of people with T2DM aged <60 years is expected to drop from 5 out of 10 in 2020 to 4 out of 10 people in 2050 under all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: There will be a massive growth in the number of people living with T2DM, and low-income countries and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be the most affected. Health systems must be strengthened to ensure optimal care for the future population with T2DM.

Mean age and body mass index at type 2 diabetes diagnosis: Pooled analysis of 56 health surveys across income groups and world regions.

BACKGROUND: Screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) targets people aged 35+ years and those with overweight/obesity. With mounting evidence on young-onset T2DM and T2DM patients with lean phenotypes, it is worth revising the screening criteria to include younger and leaner adults. We quantified the mean age and body mass index (BMI; kg/m2 ) at T2DM diagnosis in 56 countries. METHODS: Descriptive cross-sectional analysis of WHO STEPS surveys. We analysed adults (25-69 years) with new T2DM diagnosis (not necessarily T2DM onset) as per fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL measured during the survey. For people with new T2DM diagnosis, we summarized the mean age and the proportion of each five-year age group; also, we summarized the mean BMI and the proportion of mutually exclusive BMI categories. RESULTS: There were 8695 new T2DM patients. Overall, the mean age at T2DM diagnosis was 45.1 years in men and 45.0 years in women; and the mean BMI at T2DM diagnosis was 25.2 in men and 26.9 in women. Overall, in men, 10.3% were 25-29 years and 8.5% were 30-34 years old; in women, 8.6% and 12.5% were 25-29 years and 30-34 years old, respectively. 48.5% of men and 37.3% of women were in the normal BMI category. CONCLUSIONS: A non-negligible proportion of new T2DM patients were younger than 35 years. Many new T2DM patients were in the normal weight range. Guidelines for T2DM screening may consider revising the age and BMI criteria to incorporate young and lean adults.

Cardiometabolic risk profile of young and old adults with diabetes: Pooled, cross-sectional analysis of 42 national health surveys.

AIMS: To compare levels of cardiometabolic risk factors in young and old adults with diabetes. METHODS: Pooled analysis of 42 STEPS Surveys (n = 133,717). Diabetes was defined as self-reported diagnosis or fasting plasma glucose ≥ 126 mg/dl. There were two age groups: < 40 and ≥ 40 years. We summarized the mean levels of four cardiometabolic risk factors by country, sex and age group. RESULTS: In 11 (men) and seven countries (women), the mean BMI seemed higher in young versus old adults; largest difference was found in men in Qatar (∼6 kg/m2). For waist circumference, such pattern was observed in two (men) and in three (women) countries; largest difference in men in Tuvalu (∼7 cm). Regarding systolic blood pressure, in one country (Myanmar) the mean was higher in young men with ∼8 mmHg difference. Women in the oldest group always had higher mean systolic blood pressure. For total cholesterol, in 13 (men) and five (women) countries the mean was higher in young adults (difference was always <1 mmol/l). CONCLUSIONS: Levels of cardiometabolic risk factors in young versus old adults with diabetes were heterogenous across 42 countries and depended on the risk factor. This calls to monitor cardiometabolic risk factors in young adults with diabetes.

Sensitivity and specificity of three diabetes diagnostic criteria in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and otherwise healthy people: Analysis of NHANES III.

AIMS: Establishing whether fasting plasma glucose (FPG), postprandial glucose (PPG), and HbA1c have the same diagnostic accuracy in NAFLD versus otherwise healthy people could inform T2DM screening recommendations for those with NAFLD. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) 1989-1994. T2DM was defined as PPG ≥ 200 mg/dL, FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL, or HbA1c ≥ 6.5 %. We estimated sensitivity and specificity between the six pairwise combinations between the three T2DM definitions in people with and without NAFLD. With Poisson regressions, we investigated if people with NAFLD were more likely to have T2DM with two diagnostic criteria yet not with the third one. RESULTS: There were 3652 people with mean age 55.6 years and 49.4 % were men; 673 (18.4 %) people had NAFLD. Compared to NAFLD-free individuals, those with NAFLD had lower specificity in all pairwise comparisons except when PPG was the reference vs HbA1c [98.28 % (95 % CI: 97.73 %-98.72 %) in people without NAFLD vs 96.15 % (95 % CI: 94.28 %-97.54 %)]. The sensitivity of FPG was slightly superior to PPG and HbA1c in people without NAFLD; for example, 64.62 % (95 % CI: 55.75 %-72.80 %) for FPG vs 56.58 % (95 % CI: 44.71 %-67.92 %) for HbA1c. People with NAFLD were more likely to be diagnosed with FPG and PPG yet not with HbA1c (PR=2.15; p = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: While these T2DM diagnostic criteria may capture different patients both in people with and without NAFLD, in the NAFLD population FPG appears to have the best sensitivity and there were no differences between PPG and HbA1c in terms of specificity.

Mean systolic blood pressure above the control threshold in people with treated uncontrolled hypertension: a pooled, cross-sectional analysis of 55 national health surveys.

Background: The hypertension care cascade has been characterized worldwide, yet it has not been quantified how far above the blood pressure control threshold people with uncontrolled treated hypertension are. We summarized the mean systolic blood pressure (SBP; mmHg) in people treated for hypertension but SBP not <130/80. Methods: We did a cross-sectional analysis of 55 WHO STEPS Surveys (n = 10,658), comprising six world regions (Africa, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, Southeast Asia and Western Pacific); we only included the most recent survey by country regardless of when it was conducted. Adults, men and women, aged between 25 and 69 years, with self-reported hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication and whose blood pressure was >130/80 mmHg were included. We quantified the mean SBP overall and by socio-demographic (sex, age, urban/rural location, education) and cardiometabolic (current smoking, self-reported diabetes) risk factors. Findings: The lowest SBP was observed in Kuwait (146.6; 95% CI: 143.8-149.4 mmHg) and the highest in Libya (171.9; 95% CI: 167.8-176.0 mmHg). In 29 countries, the SBP was higher in men, and SBP tended to be higher in older groups except in six countries. In 17 countries, the SBP was higher in rural than in urban sites, for example in Turkmenistan the SBP was 162.3 (95% CI: 158.4-166.2) mmHg in rural versus 151.6 (95% CI: 148.7-154.4) mmHg in urban areas. In 25 countries, the SBP was higher in adults with no education, for example in Benin the SBP in people without formal education was 175.3 (95% CI: 168.8-181.9) mmHg versus 156.4 (95% CI: 148.8-164.0) mmHg in people with higher education. Interpretation: Stronger interventions to improve and secure access to effective management are needed in most countries and specific groups, to reach hypertension control in people with hypertension already receiving antihypertensive medication. Funding: The Wellcome Trust International Training Fellowship (214185/Z/18/Z).

Process evaluation of complex interventions in non-communicable and neglected tropical diseases in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this review is to map out the use of process evaluation (PE) in complex interventions that address non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) to identify gaps in the design and conduct, as well as strengths, limitations and implications, of this type of research in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). DESIGN: Scoping review of PE studies of complex interventions implemented in LMICs. Six databases were searched focused on studies published since 2008. DATA SOURCES: Embase, PubMed, EbscoHost, Web of Science (WOS), Virtual Health Library (VHL) Regional Portal and Global Index Medicus: Regional Indexes AIM (AFRO), LILACS (AMRO/PAHO), IMEMR (EMRO), IMSEAR (SEARO), WPRIM (WPRO) Global Index Regional Indexes, MEDLINE, SciELO. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies conducted in LMICs on PEs of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs published between January 2008 and January 2020. Other criteria were studies of interventions for people at risk or having physical and mental NCDs, and/or NTDs, and/or their healthcare providers and/or others related to achieve better health for these two disease groups. Studies were excluded if they were not reported in English or Spanish or Portuguese or French, not peer-reviewed articles, not empirical research and not human research. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data extracted to be evaluated were: available evidence in the utilisation of PE in the areas of NCDs and NTDs, including frameworks and theories used; methods applied to conduct PEs; and in a subsample, the barriers and facilitators to implement complex interventions identified through the PE. Variables were extracted and categorised. The information was synthesised through quantitative analysis by reporting frequencies and percentages. Qualitative analysis was also performed to understand facilitators and barriers presented in these studies. The implications for PEs, and how the information from the PE was used by researchers or other stakeholders were also assessed in this approach. RESULTS: 303 studies were identified, 79% were for NCDs, 12% used the label 'PE', 27% described a theory or framework for the PE, and 42% used mixed methods to analyse their findings. Acceptability, barriers and facilitators to implement the interventions, experiences and perceptions, and feasibility were the outcomes most frequently evaluated as part of the PEs. Barriers and facilitators themes identified were contextual factors, health system factors, human resources, attitudes and policy factors. CONCLUSIONS: PEs in NCDs and NTDs are used in LMICs with a wide variety of methods. This review identified many PEs that were not labelled by the authors as such, as well as a limited application of PE-related theories and frameworks, and heterogeneous reporting of this type of study.

Phenotypes of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and all-cause mortality: unsupervised machine learning analysis of NHANES III.

OBJECTIVES: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a non-communicable disease with a rising prevalence worldwide and with large burden for patients and health systems. To date, the presence of unique phenotypes in patients with NAFLD has not been studied, and their identification could inform precision medicine and public health with pragmatic implications in personalised management and care for patients with NAFLD. DESIGN: Cross-sectional and prospective (up to 31 December 2019) analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (1988-1994). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURES: NAFLD diagnosis was based on liver ultrasound. The following predictors informed an unsupervised machine learning algorithm (k-means): body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure (SBP), plasma glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, liver enzymes alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and gamma glutamyl transferase. We summarised (means) and compared the predictors across clusters. We used Cox proportional hazard models to quantify the all-cause mortality risk associated with each cluster. RESULTS: 1652 patients with NAFLD (mean age 47.2 years and 51.5% women) were grouped into 3 clusters: anthro-SBP-glucose (6.36%; highest levels of anthropometrics, SBP and glucose), lipid-liver (10.35%; highest levels of lipid and liver enzymes) and average (83.29%; predictors at average levels). Compared with the average phenotype, the anthro-SBP-glucose phenotype had higher all-cause mortality risk (aHR=2.88; 95% CI: 2.26 to 3.67); the lipid-liver phenotype was not associated with higher all-cause mortality risk (aHR=1.11; 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.42). CONCLUSIONS: There is heterogeneity in patients with NAFLD, whom can be divided into three phenotypes with different mortality risk. These phenotypes could guide specific interventions and management plans, thus advancing precision medicine and public health for patients with NAFLD.

Agreement between the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based WHO cardiovascular risk charts: a cross-sectional analysis of a national health survey in Peru.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the agreement between the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk predictions computed with the WHO non-laboratory-based model and laboratory-based model in a nationally representative sample of Peruvian adults. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of a national health survey. METHODS: Absolute CVD risk was computed with the 2019 WHO laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based models. The risk predictions from both models were compared with Bland-Altman plots, Lin's concordance coefficient correlation (LCCC), and kappa statistics, stratified by sex, age, body mass index categories, smoking and diabetes status. RESULTS: 663 people aged 30-59 years were included in the analysis. Overall, there were no substantial differences between the mean CVD risk computed with the laboratory-based model 2.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.2%) and the non-laboratory-based model 2.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.1%). In the Bland-Altman plots, the limits of agreement were the widest among people with diabetes (-0.21; 4.37) compared with people without diabetes (-1.17; 0.95). The lowest agreement as per the LCCC was also seen in people with diabetes (0.74 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.82)), the same was observed with the kappa statistic (kappa=0.36). In general, agreement between the scores was appropriate in terms of clinical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The absolute cardiovascular predicted risk was similar between the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based 2019 WHO cardiovascular risk models. Pending validation from longitudinal studies, the non-laboratory-based model (instead of the laboratory-based) could be used when assessing CVD risk in Peruvian population.

Predicted heart age profile across 41 countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative surveys in six world regions.

Background: Predicted heart age (PHA) can simplify communicating the absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Few studies have characterized PHA across multiple populations, and none has described whether people with excess PHA are eligible for preventive treatment for CVD. Methods: Pooled analysis of 41 World Health Organization (WHO) STEPS surveys conducted in 41 countries in six world regions between 2013 and 2019. PHA was calculated as per the non-laboratory Framingham risk score in adults without history of CVD. We described the differences between chronological age and PHA, the distribution of PHA, and the proportion of people with excess PHA that were eligible for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment following the WHO guidelines. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess sociodemographic and health-related variables associated with PHA excess. Findings: 94,655 individuals aged 30-74 years were included. 36% of those aged 30-34 years had a PHA of 30-34 years; 9% of those aged 60-64 years had a PHA of 60-64 years. Countries in Africa had the lowest prevalence of very high PHA (i.e., PHA exceeding chronological age in ≥5 years) and countries in Western Pacific had the highest. ≥50% of the population with PHA excess (i.e., PHA exceeding chronological age in ≥1 year) was not eligible for antihypertensive nor lipid-lowering treatment. Abdominal obesity, high total cholesterol, smoking and having diabetes were associated with higher odds of having PHA excess, whereas higher education and employment were inversely associated with excess PHA. Interpretation: PHA is generally higher than chronological age in LMICs and there are regional disparities. Most people with excess PHA would not be eligible to receive preventive medication. Funding: RMC-L is supported by a Wellcome Trust International Training Fellowship (214185/Z/18/Z).

Flat trend of high caesarean section rates in Peru: A pooled analysis of 3,376,062 births from the national birth registry, 2012 to 2020.

Background: National and subnational C-section rates are seldom available in low- and middle-income countries to guide policies and interventions. We aimed to describe the C-section rates at the national and subnational levels in Peru (2012-2020). Methods: Based on the Peruvian national birth registry, we quantified C-section rates at the national, regional and province levels; also, by natural regions (Coast, Highlands, and Amazon). Using individual-level data from the mother, we stratified the C-section rates by educational level, healthcare insurance and provider. Ecologically, we studied the correlations between C-section rates and human development index (HDI), altitude above sea level, proportion of the population living in poverty and proportion of rural population. Findings: C-section rate in Peru decreased slightly from 2012 (39·7%) to 2020 (38·0%). A widening gap of C-section rates was observed through the study years among the Coast that showed higher rates and the other natural regions that showed lower rates. The rates in most of the 25 regions showed a flat trend, particularly in the last four years and some provinces showed a very low rate. The rates were highest in mothers with higher education and in users of private health insurance. Higher HDI, health facility located at lower altitude, lower poverty and urbanization were positively correlated with higher C-section rates. Interpretation: C-section rates in Peru are above the international recommendations. Large differences by natural region, provinces and women socioeconomic status were found. Further efforts are needed to achieve the recommended C-section rates. Funding: Academy Ter Meulen grant of the Academy Medical Sciences Fund of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts & Sciences (KNAWWF/1327/TMB202116), Wellcome Trust (214185/Z/18/Z), Fogarty (D43TW011502).

Simplified hypertension screening methods across 60 countries: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Simplified blood pressure (BP) screening approaches have been proposed. However, evidence is limited to a few countries and has not documented the cardiovascular risk amongst missed hypertension cases, limiting the uptake of these simplified approaches. We quantified the proportion of missed, over-diagnosed, and consistently identified hypertension cases and the 10-year cardiovascular risk in these groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used 60 WHO STEPS surveys (cross-sectional and nationally representative; n = 145,174) conducted in 60 countries in 6 world regions between 2004 and 2019. Nine simplified approaches were compared against the standard (average of the last 2 of 3 BP measurements). The 10-year cardiovascular risk was computed with the 2019 World Health Organization Cardiovascular Risk Charts. We used t tests to compare the cardiovascular risk between the missed and over-diagnosed cases and the consistent hypertension cases. We used Poisson multilevel regressions to identify risk factors for missed cases (adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and 10-year cardiovascular risk). Across all countries, compared to the standard approach, the simplified approach that missed the fewest cases was using the second BP reading if the first BP reading was 130-145/80-95 mm Hg (5.62%); using only the second BP reading missed 5.82%. The simplified approach with the smallest over-diagnosis proportion was using the second BP reading if the first BP measurement was ≥140/90 mm Hg (3.03%). In many countries, cardiovascular risk was not significantly different between the missed and consistent hypertension groups, yet the mean was slightly lower amongst missed cases. Cardiovascular risk was positively associated with missed hypertension depending on the simplified approach. The main limitation of the work is the cross-sectional design. CONCLUSIONS: Simplified BP screening approaches seem to have low misdiagnosis rates, and cardiovascular risk could be lower amongst missed cases than amongst consistent hypertension cases. Simplified BP screening approaches could be included in large screening programmes and busy clinics.

Estimating the gap between demand and supply of medical appointments by physicians for hypertension care: a pooled analysis in 191 countries.

INTRODUCTION: With a growing number of people with hypertension, the limited number of physicians could not provide treatment to all patients. We quantified the gap between medical appointments available and needed for hypertension care, overall and in relation to hypertension treatment cascade metrics. METHODS: Ecological descriptive analysis. We combined country-year-specific data on hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment and control (from Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration) and number of physicians (from WHO). We estimated from 1 to 12 medical appointments per year for patients with hypertension. We assumed that physicians could see 25 patients per day, work 200 days/year and dedicate 10% of their time to hypertension care. RESULTS: We studied 191 countries. Forty-one countries would not have enough physicians to provide at least one medical appointment per year to all the population with hypertension; these countries were low/lower middle income and in sub-Saharan Africa or East Asia and Pacific. Regardless of the world region, ≥50% of countries would not have enough physicians to provide ≥8 medical appointments to their population with hypertension. Countries where the demand exceeded the offer of medical appointments for hypertension care had worse hypertension diagnosis, treatment and control rates than countries where the demand did not exceed the offer. There were positive correlations between the physician density and hypertension diagnosis (r=0.70, p<0.001), treatment (r=0.70, p<0.001) and control (r=0.59, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Where physicians are the only healthcare professionals allowed to prescribe antihypertensive medications, particularly in low and middle-income countries, the healthcare system may struggle to deliver antihypertensive treatment to patients with hypertension.

Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in Adults: Evidence from a National Health Survey in Peru.

High consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) is associated with a high risk of non-communicable diseases. Evidence of SSB consumption is needed to inform SSB-related policies, especially in countries with a high consumption, such as Peru. Using data from Peru's National Health Survey conducted in 2017-2018, the consumption of homemade and ready-to-drink SSB was estimated from a single 24 h dietary recall, accounting for socio-demographic and health-related variables. Regression models were fitted to assess which variables were linked to a high/low SSB consumption. There were 913 people and mean age was 37.7 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 36.9-38.6). Mean consumption (8 oz servings/day) of homemade SSB (1.2) doubled that of ready-to-drink SSB (0.5). The intake of homemade and ready-to-drink SSB was higher in men (1.3 and 0.7) than women (1.1 and 0.3). The intake of ready-to-drink SSB was higher in urban (0.6) compared to rural (0.2) populations. People aware of having diabetes had a lower consumption of both ready-to-drink (0.9 vs. 0.4) and homemade SSB (1.3 vs. 0.8) than those unaware of having diabetes. Male sex and living in urban locations were associated with higher ready-to-drink SSB intake. Older age was associated with a higher intake of homemade SSB. Amongst Peruvian adults, the consumption of SSB products (particularly homemade) remains high. Population-wide interventions should also aim to improve awareness of the nutritional components of homemade beverages.

Mortality attributable to type 2 diabetes mellitus in Latin America and the Caribbean: a comparative risk assessment analysis.

INTRODUCTION: We quantified the proportion and the absolute number of deaths attributable to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using an estimation approach. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined T2DM prevalence estimates from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, relative risks between T2DM and all-cause mortality from a meta-analysis of cohorts in LAC, and death rates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We estimated population-attributable fractions (PAFs) and computed the absolute number of attributable deaths in 1990 and 2019 by multiplying the PAFs by the total deaths in each country, year, sex, and 5-year age group. RESULTS: Between 1985 and 2014 in LAC, the proportion of all-cause mortality attributable to T2DM increased from 12.2% to 16.9% in men and from 14.5% to 19.3% in women. In 2019, the absolute number of deaths attributable to T2DM was 349 787 in men and 330 414 in women. The highest death rates (deaths per 100 000 people) in 2019 were in Saint Kitts and Nevis (325 in men, 229 in women), Guyana (313 in men, 272 in women), and Haiti (269 in men, 265 in women). CONCLUSIONS: A substantial burden of all deaths is attributed to T2DM in LAC. To decrease the mortality attributable to T2DM in LAC, policies are needed to strengthen early diagnosis and management, along with the prevention of complications.

Development, validation, and application of a machine learning model to estimate salt consumption in 54 countries.

Global targets to reduce salt intake have been proposed, but their monitoring is challenged by the lack of population-based data on salt consumption. We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict salt consumption at the population level based on simple predictors and applied this model to national surveys in 54 countries. We used 21 surveys with spot urine samples for the ML model derivation and validation; we developed a supervised ML regression model based on sex, age, weight, height, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. We applied the ML model to 54 new surveys to quantify the mean salt consumption in the population. The pooled dataset in which we developed the ML model included 49,776 people. Overall, there were no substantial differences between the observed and ML-predicted mean salt intake (p<0.001). The pooled dataset where we applied the ML model included 166,677 people; the predicted mean salt consumption ranged from 6.8 g/day (95% CI: 6.8-6.8 g/day) in Eritrea to 10.0 g/day (95% CI: 9.9-10.0 g/day) in American Samoa. The countries with the highest predicted mean salt intake were in the Western Pacific. The lowest predicted intake was found in Africa. The country-specific predicted mean salt intake was within reasonable difference from the best available evidence. An ML model based on readily available predictors estimated daily salt consumption with good accuracy. This model could be used to predict mean salt consumption in the general population where urine samples are not available.

Peru - Progress in health and sciences in 200 years of independence.

Peru celebrates 200 years of independence in 2021. Over this period of independent life, and despite the turbulent socio-political scenarios, from internal armed conflict to economic crisis to political instability over the last 40 years, Peru has experienced major changes on its epidemiological and population health profile. Major advancements in maternal and child health as well as in communicable diseases have been achieved in recent decades, and today Peru faces an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases including mental health conditions. In terms of the configuration of the public health system, Peru has also strived to secure country-wide optimal health care, struggling in particular to improve primary health care and intercultural services. The science and technology infrastructure has also evolved, although the need for substantial investments remains if advancing science is to be a national priority. Climate change will also bring significant challenges to population health given Peru's geographical and microclimates diversity. Looking back over the 200-years of independence, we present a summary of key advances in selected health-related fields, thus serving as the basis for reflections on pending agendas and future challenges, in order to look forward to ensuring the future health and wellbeing of the Peruvian population. Resumen translated abstract: El Perú cumple 200 años de independencia en 2021. Durante estos dos siglos de vida independiente, junto con periodos sociales y políticos turbulentos, incluyendo un conflicto armado interno, hiperinflación y la inestabilidad política de los últimos 40 años, el Perú ha experimentado importantes cambios en su perfil epidemiológico con repercusiones directas en la salud de la población. En las últimas décadas, los indicadores de salud materno-infantil y de las enfermedades transmisibles muestran mejoría importante, pero el país se enfrenta de manera simultánea a una carga cada vez mayor de enfermedades no transmisibles y de salud mental. En cuanto a los sistemas de salud pública, se han realizado esfuerzos por aumentar la cobertura y calidad de la atención de salud en todo el país, apostándose en particular por mejorar la atención primaria. La ciencia y tecnología relacionadas con la salud también han mejorado, aunque si se quiere que la ciencia sea una prioridad nacional, son necesarias inversiones sustanciales. El cambio climático traerá importantes desafíos para la salud de la población, dada la diversidad geográfica y de microclimas del país. Para conmemorar los 200 años de vida independiente del Perú, presentamos un resumen de avances clave en diversas áreas y temas relacionados con la salud. Este repaso sirve como base para reflexionar sobre agendas y desafíos pendientes y futuros, con el fin de asegurar la salud y el bienestar de la población peruana en las próximas décadas.

Risk-based antihypertensive treatment allocation in Peru: comparison of local and international guidelines analysing national health surveys between 2015-2020.

BACKGROUND: While there is a growing interest in antihypertensive medication rates among people with hypertension in low- and middle-income countries, little has been described about antihypertensive medication rates among eligible people based on the absolute cardiovascular risk approach. Following the risk-based approach, we described the proportion of eligible people receiving antihypertensive medication in Peru. METHODS: Analysis of six (2015-2020) national health surveys. Absolute cardiovascular risk was computed with the 2019 WHO cardiovascular risk charts and based on local guidelines. Antihypertensive treatment allocation based on the absolute cardiovascular risk was defined using the Package of essential noncommunicable (PEN) disease interventions for primary health care in low-resource settings and the HEARTS guidelines by the WHO; we also followed the recommendations by local guidelines. RESULTS: There were 120,059 people. Overall, according to the local guidelines the 17.9% of the population would be eligible for antihypertensive medication while this estimate was 8.1% based on the WHO guidelines. At the national level, depending on the guidelines, we observed a steady trend of eligible people receiving antihypertension medication (e.g., men, local guidelines), a decreasing trend (e.g., men, <60, local guidelines) or an increasing trend (e.g., men, ≥60, local guidelines). At the sub-national level, seventeen regions showed an increasing antihypertensive treatment rate based on the local guidelines; when based on the WHO guidelines, eleven regions showed a decreasing rate. CONCLUSIONS: Peru needs to define a tool for surveillance of absolute cardiovascular risk and to monitor antihypertensive treatment allocation among high-risk people. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (214185/Z/18/Z).

Mean blood pressure according to the hypertension care cascade: Analysis of six national health surveys in Peru.

BACKGROUND: While we have good evidence about the hypertension care cascade, we do not know the mean blood pressure (BP) in these groups. We described the mean BP in four groups based on the hypertension care cascade at the national and sub-national levels in Peru. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of six national health surveys. Blood pressure was measured twice and the second record herein analysed. We defined four groups: i) people with self-reported hypertension diagnosis receiving antihypertensive medication; ii) people with self-reported hypertension diagnosis not receiving antihypertensive medication; iii) people unaware they have hypertension with blood pressure ≥140 or 90 mmHg; and iv) otherwise healthy people. FINDINGS: There were 125,066 people; mean age was 49.8 years and there were more women (51.7%). At the national level, in men and women and throughout the study period, we observed that the mean systolic BP (SBP) was the highest in people unaware they have hypertension; the mean SBP was similar between those with and without antihypertension medication, yet slightly higher in the former group. At the sub-national level, even though the mean SBP in the unaware group was usually the highest, there were some regions and years in which the mean SBP was the highest in the untreated and treated groups. INTERPRETATION: These results complement the hypertension care cascade with a clinically relevant parameter: mean BP. The results point where policies may be needed to secure effective interventions to control hypertension in Peru, suggesting that improving early diagnosis and treatment coverage could be priorities. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (214185/Z/18/Z).